Predicting the future: Diabetes and Brexit

Predicting the Brexit outcome using singular spectrum analysis

In a referendum conducted in the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23, 2016, $51.6\%$ of the participants voted to leave the European Union (EU). The outcome of this referendum had major policy and financial impact for both UK and EU, and was seen as a surprise because the predictions consistently indicate that the ``Remain'''' would get a majority. In this paper, we investigate whether the outcome o...

Predicting Brexit: Classifying Agreement is Better than Sentiment and Pollsters

On June 23rd 2016, UK held the referendum which ratified the exit from the EU. While most of the traditional pollsters failed to forecast the final vote, there were online systems that hit the result with high accuracy using opinion mining techniques and big data. Starting one month before, we collected and monitored millions of posts about the referendum from social media conversations, and ex...

Predicting the future

LEO HOWE and ALAN WAIN (eds), Predictinig the future, Cambridge University Press, 1993, pp. vi, 195, illus., £18.95, $29.95 (0-521-41323-0). Predicting the future is a risky business and few of the authors are prepared to try it. Rather they analyse the past and present. Stephen Hawking does however consider the future of the universe. He would have liked at one stage to write a history of the ...

Predicting the Future

We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncertain event and compare it to both the objective probability of its occurrence ...

Brexit and health services.